Infant mortality in the Flemish Region of Belgium 1999-2008: a time-to-event analysis

Archives of Public Health

Edwin Pelfrene¹  Heidi Cloots²  Erik Hendrickx² 

[1] Studiedienst van de Vlaamse Regering (SVR) [Study Centre of the Government of Flanders], Vlaamse overheid [Flemish authorities], Boudewijnlaan, 30, 1000 Brussels, Belgium

[2] Vlaams Agentschap Zorg en Gezondheid (VAZG) [Flemish Agency for Care & Health], Vlaamse overheid [Flemish authorities], Brussels, Belgium

关键词: Life expectancy at birth;    Infant mortality;    Flemish Region;    Belgium;   

Others  :  791231
DOI  :  10.1186/0778-7367-70-6

 received in 2011-12-06, accepted in 2012-03-30,  发布年份 2012

【 摘 要 】

Background

When calculating life expectancy, it is usually assumed that deaths are uniformly distributed within each of the age intervals. As most of the infant deaths are neonatal deaths, this calls for a better assessment for that age group.

Methods

The Flemish unified death and birth certificates database for all calendar years between 1999 and 2008 was used. A Kaplan-Meier survival analysis on a yearly basis was performed to assess the mean time-to-event and to compare survival curves between both genders.

Results

Over the last years, a slight though not steady decrease of the infant mortality rate is observed. In 2008, the probability among live births of dying before their first anniversary is 4.6‰ in boys and 3.5‰ in girls. The large majority (about 85%) of these have died in their year of birth. The mean survival time of deaths in their year of birth was found to centre around 1 month (about 30 days), which results in a 'mean proportion of the calendar year lived' (k1) close to 0.09. Among those who died in the year after their year of birth yet before their first anniversary, no such concentration in time of the deaths is observed. Differences between the gender groups are small and generally not statistically significant.

Conclusion

Statistics Belgium, the federal statistics office, imputes a value for k1 equal to 0.1 for infant deaths in their year of birth when calculating life expectancy. Our data fully support this value. We think such refinement is generally feasible in calculating life expectancy.

【 授权许可】

   
2012 Pelfrene et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

【 图 表 】

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

Figure 3.

【 参考文献 】

• [1]Pressat R: L'analyse démographique. Paris: Presses Universitaires de France; 1983.
• [2]van der Meulen A: Overlevingstafels en longitudinale analyse [Life tables and longitudinal analysis]. CBS-Statistische Methoden 2009, 3:1-25.
• [3]Willems P, Lodewijckx E, Pelfrene E, Van Peer C: Het schatten van sterftekansen op oudere leeftijden [The assesment of mortality risks at older ages]. In SVR-Webartikel 2010, 11:1-9.
• [4]Namboodiri K, Suchindran CM: Life table techniques and their applications. Orlando (Florida, USA): Academic; 1987.
• [5]Eurostat: Demographic Outlook. National reports on the demographic developments in 2007. Luxembourg; 2008.
• [6]Poulain M, Tabutin D: Mortalité aux jeunes âges en Belgique de 1840 en 1970. Population et Famille 1977, 42(3):49-86.
• [7]Federaal Planbureau, Algemene Directie Statistiek en Economische Informatie: Bevolkingsvooruitzichten/Perspectives de population 2007-2060. Brussel: Federaal Planbureau, Planning Paper 105; 2008. [Population forecasts 2007-2060]
• [8]Masuy-Stroobant G, Gourbin C: Infant health and mortality indicators. Eur J of Population 1995, 11:63-84.
• [9]Statistics Belgium [http://statbel.fgov.be/nl/statistieken/cijfers] webcite
• [10]Calot G, Sardon J-P: Méthodologie relative au calcul des indicateurs démographiques d'Eurostat. Rapport détaillé de l'Observatoire Démographique Européen (ODE). In Population et conditions sociale 3/2003/E/n°26. Luxembourg: Office des publications officielles des Communautés européennes; 2004:1-136.
• [11]Calot G, Franco A: The construction of life tables. In Life Tables: Data, Methods, Models. Edited by Wunsch G, Mouchart M, Duchène J. Dordrecht: Kluwer; 2001:31-75.
• [12]Devlieger H, Martens G, Bekaert A: Social inequalities in perinatal and infant mortality in the northern region of Belgium (the Flanders). Eur J Public Health 2005, 15(1):15-19.