Indirect land use changes of biofuel production – a review of modelling efforts and policy developments in the European Union

Biotechnology for Biofuels

Serina Ahlgren¹  Lorenzo Di Lucia² 

[1] Department of Energy and Technology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden

[2] Department of Technology and Society, Lund University, PO Box 118, SE 221 00 Lund, Sweden

关键词: EU;    policy;    uncertainty;    review;    ILUC;   

Others  :  793265
DOI  :  10.1186/1754-6834-7-35

 received in 2013-11-19, accepted in 2014-02-21,  发布年份 2014

【 摘 要 】

The issue of indirect land use changes (ILUC) caused by the promotion of transport biofuels has attracted considerable attention in recent years. In this paper, we reviewed the current literature on modelling work to estimate emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) caused by ILUC of biofuels. We also reviewed the development of ILUC policies in the EU. Our review of past modelling work revealed that most studies employ economic equilibrium modelling and focus on ethanol fuels, especially with maize as feedstock. It also revealed major variation in the results from the models, especially for biodiesel fuels. However, there has been some convergence of results over time, particularly for ethanol from maize, wheat and sugar cane. Our review of EU policy developments showed that the introduction of fuel-specific ILUC factors has been officially suggested by policymakers to deal with the ILUC of biofuels. The values proposed as ILUC factors in the policymaking process in the case of ethanol fuels are generally in line with the results of the latest modelling exercises, in particular for first-generation ethanol fuels from maize and sugar cane, while those for biodiesel fuels are somewhat higher. If the proposed values were introduced into EU policy, no (first-generation) biodiesel fuel would be able to comply with the EU GHG saving requirements. We identified a conflict between the demand from EU policymakers for exact, highly specific values and the capacity of the current models to supply results with that level of precision. We concluded that alternative policy approaches to ILUC factors should be further explored.

【 授权许可】

   
2014 Ahlgren and Di Lucia; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

【 图 表 】

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

Figure 3.

Figure 4.

【 参考文献 】

• [1]Marland G, Schlamadinger B: Forests for carbon sequestration or fossil fuel substitution? A sensitivity analysis. Biomass Bioenergy 1997, 13:389-397.
• [2]Leemans R, van Amstel A, Battjes C, Kreileman E, Toet S: The land cover and carbon cycle consequences of large-scale utilizations of biomass as an energy source. Glob Environ Chang 1996, 6:335-357.
• [3]Searchinger T, Heimlich R, Houghton RA, Dong F, Elobeid A, Fabiosa J, Tokgoz S, Hayes D, Yu T-H: Use of U.S. croplands for biofuels increases greenhouse gases through emissions from land-use change. Science 2008, 319:1238-1240.
• [4]Fargione J, Hill J, Tilman D, Polasky S, Hawthorne P: Land clearing and the biofuel carbon debt. Science 2008, 319:1235-1238.
• [5]Di Lucia L, Ahlgren S, Ericsson K: The dilemma of indirect land-use changes in EU biofuel policy – decision-making in the context of scientific uncertainty. Environ Sci Policy 2012, 16:9-19.
• [6]Böhringer C, Löschel A: Computable general equilibrium models for sustainability impact assessment: status quo and prospects. Ecol Econ 2006, 60:49-64.
• [7]Fritsche UR, Sims REH, Monti A: Direct and indirect land-use competition issues for energy crops and their sustainable production - an overview. Biofuel Bioprod Bior 2010, 4:692-704.
• [8]Nassar AM, Harfuch L, Bachion LC, Moreira MR: Biofuels and land-use changes: searching for the top model. Interface Focus 2011, 1:224-232.
• [9]Bauen A, Chudziak C, Vad K, Watson P: A causal descriptive approach to modelling the GHG emissions associated with the indirect land use impacts of biofuels. Final report. A study for the UK Department for Transport. E4tech. 2010. [http://www.apere.org/doc/1010_e4tech.pdf webcite]
• [10]Fritsche UR, Hennenberg K, Hünecke K: Sustainability Standards for internationally traded Biomass. The “iLUC Factor” as a Means to Hedge Risks of GHG Emissions from Indirect Land Use Change - Working Paper. Energy & Climate Division, Öko-Institut, Darmstadt Office; 2010. [http://www.oeko.de/oekodoc/1030/2010-082-en.pdf webcite]
• [11]Tipper R, Hutchison C, Brander M: A practical approach for policies to address GHG emissions from indirect land use change associated with biofuels. 2009. [Ecometrica and Greenergy Technical Paper - TP-080212-A]
• [12]Broch A, Hoekman SK, Unnasch S: A review of variability in indirect land use change assessment and modeling in biofuel policy. Environ Sci Pol 2013, 29:147-157.
• [13]Wicke B, Verweij P, van Meijl H, van Vuuren DP, Faaij APC: Indirect land use change: review of existing models and strategies for mitigation. Biofuels 2011, 3:87-100.
• [14]Warner E, Zhang Y, Inman D, Heath G: Challenges in the estimation of greenhouse gas emissions from biofuel-induced global land-use change. Biofuel Bioprod Bior 2014, 8:114-125.
• [15]Khanna M, Crago C: Measuring indirect land use change with biofuels: Implications for policy. 2011. [Agricultural Policy Briefs Dep of Agricultural and Consumer Economics University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign March 18, 2011 APBR 11–01;] [http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/policy/apbr/apbr_11_01/apbr_11_01.pdf webcite]
• [16]Prins AG, Stehfest E, Overmars KP, Ros J: Are models suitable for determining ILUC factors?. 2010. [PBL, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency] [http://www.rivm.nl/bibliotheek/rapporten/500143006.pdf webcite]
• [17]Di Lucia L, Ahlgren S, Ericsson K: The dilemma of indirect land-use changes in EU biofuel policy - an empirical study of policy-making in the context of scientific uncertainty. Environ Sci Pol 2012, 16:9-19.
• [18]ARB: Subchapter 10. Climate Change Article 4. Regulations to Achieve Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions Subarticle 7. Low Carbon Fuel Standard. California Air Resources Board. 2009. [http://www.arb.ca.gov/regact/2009/lcfs09/lcfscombofinal.pdf webcite]
• [19]Warner E, Inman D, Kunstman B, Bush B, Vimmerstedt L, Peterson S, Macknick J, Zhang Y: Modeling biofuel expansion effects on land use change dynamics. Environ Res Lett 2013., 8
• [20]Dunn JB, Mueller S, Kwon H-y, Wang MQ: Land-use change and greenhouse gas emissions from corn and cellulosic ethanol. Biotechnology for Biofuels. 2013, 6:51.
• [21]Taheripour F, Tyner WE: Induced land use emissions due to first and second generation biofuels and uncertainty in land use emissions factors. No 124407. In 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12–14, 2012, Seattle, Washington. Agricultural and Applied Economics Association; 2012. [http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aaea12:124407 webcite]
• [22]EP: Report on the proposal for a directive of the European Parliament and of the Council on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources. Brussels: European Parliament, Committee on Industry, Research and Energy; 2008.
• [23]EC: Report from the Commission on indirect land-use change related to biofuels and bioliquids. Brussels: European Commission; 2010.
• [24]EC: Proposal for a Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council amending Directive 98/70/EC and Directive 2009/28/EC, COM 595 final. Brussels: European Commission; 2012.
• [25]EC: Impact assessment accompanying the proposal for a Directive amending Directive 98/70/EC and Directive 2009/28/EC Commission staff working document. Brussels: European Commission; 2012.
• [26]EP: European Parliament legislative resolution of 11 September 2013 on the proposal for a directive of the European Parliament and of the Council amending Directive 98/70/EC relating to the quality of petrol and diesel fuels and amending Directive 2009/28/EC on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources, First reading. Brussels: European Parliament; 2013.
• [27]CEU: Progress report on the Proposal for a Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council amending Directive 98/70/EC and Directive 2009/28/EC First reading. Brussels: Council of the European Union; 2013.
• [28]Edwards R, Mulligan D, Marelli L: Indirect Land Use Change from increased biofuels demand. Comparison of models and results for marginal biofuels production from different feedstocks. 2010. [JRC Scientific and Technical Reports no EUR 24485 EN – 2010. Joint Research Centre, European Commission]
• [29]Akhurst M, Kalas N, Woods J: Synthesis of European Commission Biofuels Land Use Modelling. 2011. [SCIENCE INSIGHTS for Biofuel Policy, Issue 1, March 2011. LCAworks and Porter Institute (Imperial College London)] [http://www.lcaworks.com/Science_Insights_Issue1.pdf webcite]
• [30]EC: The impact of land use change on greenhouse gas emissions from biofuels and bioliquids. Literature review. An in-house review conducted for DG Energy as part of the European Commission’s analytical work on indirect land use change. 2010. [http://ec.europa.eu/energy/renewables/studies/doc/land_use_change/study_3_land_use_change_literature_review_final_30_7_10.pdf webcite]
• [31]Cornelissen S, Dehue B, Wonink S: Summary of approaches to account for and monitor indirect impacts of biofuel production. 2009. [Report no PECPNL084225, Ecofys] [https://www.cbd.int/agriculture/2011-121/EU-Ecofys-sep11-en.pdf webcite]. ye
• [32]O’Connor D: Issues with GTAP iLUC Modelling. 2011. [Presentation at Seminar: Indirect land use change related to biofuels and bioliquids: what option would you chose? Organised by Copa-Cogeca, Brussels 3rd May 2011] [http://www.copa-cogeca.eu/img/user/file/BI_SPEECH/Don_OConnor_BI3592_EN.pdf webcite]
• [33]Yeh S, Witcover J: Policy Brief: indirect Land-Use Change from Biofuels: Recent Developments in Modeling and Policy Landscapes. Carbon Standards in Agricultural Production and Trade. Sao Paulo: International Food & Agricultural Trade Policy Council 2010. [http://www.its.ucdavis.edu/wp-content/themes/ucdavis/pubs/download_pdf.php?id=1434 webcite]
• [34]Lahl U: An analysis of iLUC and biofuels regional quantification of climate relevant land use change and options for combating it. 2010. [Report no BI(10)8696. BZL Kommunikation und Projektsteuerung GmbH] [http://www.bzl-gmbh.de/de/sites/default/files/iLUC_Studie_Lahl_engl.pdf webcite]
• [35]Walker WE, Harremoës P, Rotmans J, van der Sluijs JP, van Asselt MBA, Janssen P, Krayer von Krauss MP: Defining uncertainty: a conceptual basis for uncertainty management in model-based decision support. Integr Assess 2003, 4:5-17.
• [36]Plevin RJ, O’Hare M, Jones AD, Torn MS, Gibbs HK: Greenhouse gas emissions from biofuels. Indirect land use change are uncertain but may be much greater than previously estimated. Environ Sci Technol 2010, 44:8015-8021.