Migration and Nuptiality in Course of Revitalization the Economic Development of Yakutia

International Multi-Conference on Industrial Engineering and Modern technologies

Sukneva, S.^1 ; Barashkova, A.^1 ; Tarasova-Sivtceva, O.^1

North-Eastern Federal University, Yakutsk

677000, Russia^1

关键词: Active explorations;    Correlation analysis;    Economic development;    Pair correlations;    Political changes;    Population change;    Regional economic development;    Time-series data;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1757-899X/463/4/042102/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1757-899X/463/4/042102

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Over the period of semicentenial development the economic processes in Yakutia have been accompanied by large-scale migratory population movement. An active exploration of new territories resulted in migration to become a basic population change component substantially defining population age structure, birth and death rate in the region. The article considers the interrelation of migratory inflow and nuptiality changes in local territories of intensive economic development. The correlation analysis of time-series data is provided. The hypothesis is tested of existing one-year time log between a migrant arrival and wedding. It was discovered that the periods of intensified regional economic development accompanied by large-scale inflow of migrants, featured very high strength of relationship between the stream of arrivals and marriage registrations. In particular, Pearson's pair correlation coefficient between the arrivals and marriages made up 0.885 in West Yakutia in 1960th, and 0.962 - in South Yakutia in 1970th. The revealed relationship was largely determined by a favorable proportion between the number of persons in marriable age among migrants and their commitment towards long stay in Yakutia, including their intentions to establish a family. The analysis of dynamic numbers has shown that the deep social and economic, political changes of the 1990th in the region were accompanied by radical change of migration vector and the increase in migratory seasonal component. These factors resulted in a considerably falling migratory rate, reduced or even discontinued interrelation between arrival rates and officially registered marriages.