Scenarious modeling and justification of perspective intensity of motion of transport flow

International Conference on Construction, Architecture and Technosphere Safety 2018

土木建筑工程

Filimonova, L.A.^1 ; Matys, E.G.^1 ; Zozulia, Yu.V.^1

Institute of Service Management and Industry, Industrial University, Lunacharskogo Street, 2, Tyumen

625000, Russia^1

关键词: Effective management;    Evaluation activity;    Investment attractiveness;    Long-term forecast;    Making decision;    Optimality criteria;    Transport flow;    Utility functions;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1757-899X/451/1/012071/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1757-899X/451/1/012071

学科分类：土木及结构工程学

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

The article discusses the problematic aspects of justifying a project. Such issues include the formation of a sound system of indicators for assessing the effectiveness of the project solution, which has a special impact on the level of investment attractiveness of the project as a whole. The problem of assessing the effectiveness of the project, of its social and budgetary attractiveness for the region has not only not lost its relevance, but has also been transformed into of the most important conditions for ensuring effective management of all spheres of the region. The article poses the classical task of making decisions on the results of assessing the social and budgetary efficiency of the project for the region in a matrix format with an evaluation utility function. The principal distinguishing feature of the results of the study are schemes of manipulation in the evaluation activity associated with the selection of groups of optimality criteria. The article presents the results of scenario-variant studies on the substantiation of the significance of modeling, specifies the features and limitations in applying the statistical apparatus in constructing long-term forecasts for the development of the region and studying the intensity traffic flow.