Forecasting the Amount of the Lung Diseases by the Method of ARIMA-ARCH

International Conference on Informatics, Engineering, Science and Technology

计算机科学;工业技术

Mbau, B.K.^1

Faculty of Postgraduate, Universitas Komputer Indonesia, 112-116 Dipatiukur Street, Lebak Gede, Coblong, West Java, Bandung

40132, Indonesia^1

关键词: Accuracy level;    ARCH models;    Human bodies;    research methods;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1757-899X/407/1/012155/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1757-899X/407/1/012155

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

This paper aimed at forecasting the number of cases of Tuberculosis in XYZ hospital. The lungs are one of the vital organs in the human body. This research method using ARIMA-ARCH model. Test results into the influential heteroskedastisitas forecasting the number of cases of tuberculosis, where when the model initially has no effect ARCH but still continued into the ARIMAARCH value produces a MAPE of better evidenced by the model of ARIMA (0, 1, 3) the ARCH (1) have a better accuracy level, where has a value of MAPE 2.09 % whereas the model ARIMA (0, 1, 3) has a value of MAPE 2.31%.