Research on the changing trend of farmland area in China and its driving factors from 1996 to 2016

International Conference on Manufacturing Technology, Materials and Chemical Engineering

机械制造;材料科学;化学工业

Wang, J.Y.^1 ; Li, X.M.^2

Xi'An Shiyou University, Xi'an

710065, China^1

Shaanxi Provincial Land Engineering Construction Group, Xi'an

710075, China^2

关键词: ARIMA modeling;    Changing trends;    Correlation analysis;    Data mining technology;    Driving factors;    Research results;    Social economy;    Urban population;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1757-899X/392/6/062097/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1757-899X/392/6/062097

学科分类：材料科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

The paper was to research the changing trend of farmland area from 1996 to 2016. The original data of farmland area of China in these years were collected, data mining technology was used, and ARIMA model was chosen to predict each other between the two periods of 1996-2008 and 2008-2016, so the original farmland area data could be corrected and normalized. Then correlation analysis was used to study the driving factors. The trend research result showed, the farmland area decreased from 1996 to 2016, the decreasing rate was faster before 2004, and then it decreased slowly. The correlation analysis result showed, the added value proportion of primary industry, the total population, and the urban population were the most important driving factors, their coefficients were 0.959, -0.918 and -0.896 respectively. It could be concluded by the result that the industry configuration and the urbanization could affect the farmland area changing with the development of social economy.