An impact analysis of forecasting methods and forecasting parameters on bullwhip effect

International Conference on Industrial and Systems Engineering 2017

Silitonga, R.Y.H.^1 ; Jelly, N.^1

Department of Industrial Engineering, Harapan Bangsa Institute of Technology, Bandung, Indonesia^1

关键词: Demand fluctuations;    Exponential smoothing;    Forecasting methods;    Information control;    Mathematical equations;    Mean squared error;    Smoothing parameter;    Spreadsheet program;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1757-899X/337/1/012026/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1757-899X/337/1/012026

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Bullwhip effect is an increase of variance of demand fluctuation from downstream to upstream of supply chain. Forecasting methods and forecasting parameters were recognized as some factors that affect bullwhip phenomena. To study these factors, we can develop simulations. There are several ways to simulate bullwhip effect in previous studies, such as mathematical equation modelling, information control modelling, computer program, and many more. In this study a spreadsheet program named Bullwhip Explorer was used to simulate bullwhip effect. Several scenarios were developed to show the change in bullwhip effect ratio because of the difference in forecasting methods and forecasting parameters. Forecasting methods used were mean demand, moving average, exponential smoothing, demand signalling, and minimum expected mean squared error. Forecasting parameters were moving average period, smoothing parameter, signalling factor, and safety stock factor. It showed that decreasing moving average period, increasing smoothing parameter, increasing signalling factor can create bigger bullwhip effect ratio. Meanwhile, safety stock factor had no impact to bullwhip effect.