Markov chain model for demersal fish catch analysis in Indonesia

Indonesian Operations Research Association - International Conference on Operations Research 2017

Firdaniza^1 ; Gusriani, N.^1

Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Padjadjaran University, Jl.Raya Bandung-Sumedang km 21, Jatinangor

45363, Indonesia^1

关键词: Economic values;    Ergodic markov chains;    Fish resources;    Fisheries management;    Fishery resources;    Markov chain models;    Predictive values;    Transition probability matrix;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1757-899X/332/1/012022/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1757-899X/332/1/012022

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

As an archipelagic country, Indonesia has considerable potential fishery resources. One of the fish resources that has high economic value is demersal fish. Demersal fish is a fish with a habitat in the muddy seabed. Demersal fish scattered throughout the Indonesian seas. Demersal fish production in each Indonesia's Fisheries Management Area (FMA) varies each year. In this paper we have discussed the Markov chain model for demersal fish yield analysis throughout all Indonesia's Fisheries Management Area. Data of demersal fish catch in every FMA in 2005-2014 was obtained from Directorate of Capture Fisheries. From this data a transition probability matrix is determined by the number of transitions from the catch that lie below the median or above the median. The Markov chain model of demersal fish catch data was an ergodic Markov chain model, so that the limiting probability of the Markov chain model can be determined. The predictive value of demersal fishing yields was obtained by calculating the combination of limiting probability with average catch results below the median and above the median. The results showed that for 2018 and long-term demersal fishing results in most of FMA were below the median value.