Forecasting of global solar radiation using anfis and armax techniques

2017 2nd International Conference on Functional Materials and Metallurgy

材料科学;冶金学

Muhammad, Auwal^1 ; Gaya, M.S.^2 ; Aliyu, Rakiya^1 ; Abdulkadir, Rabi'U Aliyu^2 ; Dauda Umar, Ibrahim^1 ; Aminu Yusuf, Lukuman^3 ; Umar Ali, Mudassir^1 ; Khairi, M.T.M.^4

Department of Physics, Kano University of Science and Technology, Wudil, Nigeria^1

Department of Electrical Engineering, Kano University of Science and Technology, Wudil, Nigeria^2

Department of Electrical Engineering, Bayero University, Kano, Nigeria^3

Deparment of Control and Mechatronics, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Malaysia^4

关键词: Adaptive neuro fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS);    ANFIS model;    ARMAX model;    Autoregressive moving average;    Global solar radiation;    International airport;    Maintenance cost;    Measuring device;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1757-899X/303/1/012016/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1757-899X/303/1/012016

学科分类：材料科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Procurement of measuring device, maintenance cost coupled with calibration of the instrument contributed to the difficulty in forecasting of global solar radiation in underdeveloped countries. Most of the available regressional and mathematical models do not capture well the behavior of the global solar radiation. This paper presents the comparison of Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Autoregressive Moving Average with eXogenous term (ARMAX) in forecasting global solar radiation. Full-Scale (experimental) data of Nigerian metrological agency, Sultan Abubakar III international airport Sokoto was used to validate the models. The simulation results demonstrated that the ANFIS model having achieved MAPE of 5.34% outperformed the ARMAX model. The ANFIS could be a valuable tool for forecasting the global solar radiation.