Assessment of Probability of Failure of Building Structures in Uncertainty Conditions

International Conference on Construction, Architecture and Technosphere Safety 2017

土木建筑工程

Bushinskaya, A.V.^1,2 ; Timashev, S.A.^1,2

Science and Engineering Center Reliability and Safety of Large Systems and Machines, Ural Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, 54A, Studencheskaya, Yekaterinburg, Russia^1

Department of Automated Design Systems of Construction Objects (SAPROS), Institute of Civil Engineering, Ural Federal University, Mira, 17, Yekaterinburg

620002, Russia^2

关键词: Approximation model;    Bayesian Analysis;    Building structure;    Epistemic uncertainties;    Probabilistic models;    Probability of failure;    Random values;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1757-899X/262/1/012056/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1757-899X/262/1/012056

学科分类：土木及结构工程学

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

When assessing a reliability of building structures, probabilistic models are used that have some random values (RV) as their input. The statistical analysis of these RV inevitably introduces some uncertainties in the assessments of their parameters. In this paper a novel method is given to assess the probability of failure (PoF) of building structures (BS) in the conditions of epistemic uncertainty of the initial data. Epistemic uncertainty is a systemic uncertainty that emerges due to insufficient knowledge about the processes being studied and substitution of them by some approximation models. The uncertainty is accounted for using the Bayesian analysis.