The transport forecast _ an important stage of transport management

CAR2017 International Congress of Automotive and Transport Engineering - Mobility Engineering and Environment

工业技术;运输工程

Dragu, Vasile^1 ; Dinu, Oana^1 ; Oprea, Cristina^1 ; Roman, Eugenia Alina^1

University Politehnica of Bucharest, Faculty of Transports, Transport, Traffic and Logistics Department, Splaiul Independenei, No. 313, Bucharest

060042, Romania^1

关键词: Passenger traffic;    Powerful systems;    Supply and demand;    Technical solutions;    Transport demand;    Transport management;    Transport planning;    Transport systems;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1757-899X/252/1/012050/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1757-899X/252/1/012050

学科分类：工业工程学

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

The transport system is a powerful system with varying loads in operation coming from changes in freight and passenger traffic in different time periods. The variations are due to the specific conditions of organization and development of socio-economic activities. The causes of varying loads can be included in three groups: economic, technical and organizational. The assessing of transport demand variability leads to proper forecast and development of the transport system, knowing that the market price is determined on equilibrium between supply and demand. The reduction of transport demand variability through different technical solutions, organizational, administrative, legislative leads to an increase in the efficiency and effectiveness of transport. The paper presents a new way of assessing the future needs of transport through dynamic series. Both researchers and practitioners in transport planning can benefit from the research results. This paper aims to analyze in an original approach how a good transport forecast can lead to a better management in transport, with significant effects on transport demand full meeting in quality terms. The case study shows how dynamic series of statistics can be used to identify the size of future demand addressed to the transport system.