On the selection of significant variables in a model for the deteriorating process of facades

3rd International Conference on Innovative Materials, Structures and Technologies

Serrat, C.^1 ; Gibert, V.^2 ; Casas, J.R.^3 ; Rapinski, J.^4

Dept of Mathematics, IEMAE-EPSEB, Universitat Politè Cnica de Catalunya-BarcelonaTECH, Dr Marañó n, 44-50, Barcelona

08028, Spain^1

Dept of Architectural Technology, LABEDI-EPSEB, Universitat Politè Cnica de Catalunya-BarcelonaTECH, Dr Marañó n, 44-50, Barcelona

08028, Spain^2

Dept of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Universitat Politè Cnica de Catalunya-BarcelonaTECH, Jordi Girona, 1-3, Barcelona

08034, Spain^3

Institute of Geodesy, University of Warmia and Mazury, Oczapowskiego, Olsztyn

10719, Poland^4

关键词: Barcelona , Spain;    Decision making process;    Environmental conditions;    Inspection process;    Maintenance strategies;    Predictive systems;    Significant variables;    Survival analysis;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1757-899X/251/1/012071/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1757-899X/251/1/012071

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

In previous works the authors of this paper have introduced a predictive system that uses survival analysis techniques for the study of time-To-failure in the facades of a building stock. The approach is population based, in order to obtain information on the evolution of the stock across time, and to help the manager in the decision making process on global maintenance strategies. For the decision making it is crutial to determine those covariates-like materials, morphology and characteristics of the facade, orientation or environmental conditions-that play a significative role in the progression of different failures. The proposed platform also incorporates an open source GIS plugin that includes survival and test moduli that allow the investigator to model the time until a lesion taking into account the variables collected during the inspection process. The aim of this paper is double: A) to shortly introduce the predictive system, as well as the inspection and the analysis methodologies and b) to introduce and illustrate the modeling strategy for the deteriorating process of an urban front. The illustration will be focused on the city of L'Hospitalet de Llobregat (Barcelona, Spain) in which more than 14,000 facades have been inspected and analyzed.