An Optimization of Inventory Demand Forecasting in University Healthcare Centre

The Indonesian Operations Research Association (IORA) - International Conference on Operations Research 2016

Bon, A.T.^1 ; Ng, T.K.^1

Department Production and Operation Management, UniversitiTun Hussein Onn Malaysia, Parit Raja Johor

86400, Malaysia^1

关键词: Auto-regressive integrated moving average;    Exponential smoothing;    Forecasting accuracy;    Forecasting techniques;    Healthcare industry;    Healthcare organizations;    Managerial decision making;    Time series forecasting models;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1757-899X/166/1/012035/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1757-899X/166/1/012035

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Healthcare industry becomes an important field for human beings nowadays as it concerns about one's health. With that, forecasting demand for health services is an important step in managerial decision making for all healthcare organizations. Hence, a case study was conducted in University Health Centre to collect historical demand data of Panadol 650mg for 68 months from January 2009 until August 2014. The aim of the research is to optimize the overall inventory demand through forecasting techniques. Quantitative forecasting or time series forecasting model was used in the case study to forecast future data as a function of past data. Furthermore, the data pattern needs to be identified first before applying the forecasting techniques. Trend is the data pattern and then ten forecasting techniques are applied using Risk Simulator Software. Lastly, the best forecasting techniques will be find out with the least forecasting error. Among the ten forecasting techniques include single moving average, single exponential smoothing, double moving average, double exponential smoothing, regression, Holt-Winter's additive, Seasonal additive, Holt-Winter's multiplicative, seasonal multiplicative and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). According to the forecasting accuracy measurement, the best forecasting technique is regression analysis.