Probabilistic Life Cycle Cost Model for Repairable System

9th Curtin University of Technology Science and Engineering International Conference 2014

自然科学;工业技术

Nasir, Meseret^1 ; Chong, H.Y.^1 ; Osman, Sabtuni^2

Department of Mechanical Engineering, Curtin University, Sarawak Miri, Malaysia^1

Department of Reliability and Maintenance, Petronas Carigali Sarawak Operations, Miri, Malaysia^2

关键词: Adaptive network based fuzzy inference system;    Decision making process;    Deterministic approach;    Life cycle cost model;    Life cycle costs (LCC);    Probabilistic approaches;    Quantitative information;    Repairable systems;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1757-899X/78/1/012027/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1757-899X/78/1/012027

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Traditionally, Life cycle cost (LCC) has been predicted in a deterministic approach, however; this method is not capable to consider the uncertainties in the input variables. In this paper, a probabilistic approach using Adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is proposed to estimate the LCC of repairable systems. The developed model could handle the uncertainties of input variables in the estimation of LCC. The numerical analysis shows that the acquisition and downtime cost could have a high effect towards the LCC compared to repair cost. The developed model could also provide more precise quantitative information for decision making process.