The research of emergency managers' risk attitude based on genetic neural network

2nd Annual International Conference on Information System and Artificial Intelligence

物理学;计算机科学

Pan, Chen^1 ; Jia, Chuanliang^1 ; Su, Jie^1 ; Chen, Junlin^1

Department of Management Science and Engineering, Central University of Finance and Economics, Faculty of Management Science and Engineering, Beijing, China^1

关键词: BP neural network model;    BP neural networks;    Efficient managements;    Forecasting methods;    Genetic neural network;    Output variables;    Risk decision making;    Training experiences;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-6596/887/1/012032/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1742-6596/887/1/012032

学科分类：计算机科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Since the 21st century, the sudden emergencies occurred around the world. The decision which emergency managers made in the emergency environment is actually a risk decision-making. And decision-makers will be affected by its risk attitude in the risk decision-making. The paper puts forward a kind of forecasting method of risk attitudes of emergency managers, which are influenced by various factors such as their own gender, age, training experiences, treatment experiences, actual average accuracy and self-confidence and so on. Based on the questionnaire results from Kunming and Wuhan, the above six factors were chosen as the input variables of the BP neural network model and the risk attitude values as the output variable. Genetic algorithm was used to optimize the weights and thresholds of the neural network and establish BP Neural network prediction model of emergency managers. The results of risk attitude value prediction show that the GA-BP is a more effective and accurate method to predict emergency managers' risk attitude, which can provide the reference for the risk managers' risk attitude prediction and more efficient management.