Optimization Under Uncertainty of Site-Specific Turbine Configurations

The Science of Making Torque from Wind

Quick, J.^1 ; Dykes, K.^1 ; Graf, P.^1 ; Zahle, F.^2

National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden

CO, United States^1

Department of Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark^2

关键词: Configuration optimization;    Conservative designs;    Empirical model;    Optimal selection;    Optimization under uncertainty;    Risk aversion;    Wind energy plants;    Wind resources;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-6596/753/6/062012/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1742-6596/753/6/062012

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Uncertainty affects many aspects of wind energy plant performance and cost. In this study, we explore opportunities for site-specific turbine configuration optimization that accounts for uncertainty in the wind resource. As a demonstration, a simple empirical model for wind plant cost of energy is used in an optimization under uncertainty to examine how different risk appetites affect the optimal selection of a turbine configuration for sites of different wind resource profiles. If there is unusually high uncertainty in the site wind resource, the optimal turbine configuration diverges from the deterministic case and a generally more conservative design is obtained with increasing risk aversion on the part of the designer.