A Novel Forecasting System for Solar Particle Events and Flares (FORSPEF)

24th European Cosmic Ray Symposium

Papaioannou, A.^1 ; Anastasiadis, A.^1 ; Sandberg, I.^1 ; Georgoulis, M.K.^2 ; Tsiropoula, G.^1 ; Tziotziou, K.^1 ; Jiggens, P.^3 ; Hilgers, A.^3

National Observatory of Athens, Institute for Astronomy, Astrophysics, Space Applications and Remote Sensing, Greece^1

Academy of Athens, Research Center for Astronomy and Applied Mathematics, Greece^2

European Space Agency, European Research and Technology Center, Netherlands^3

关键词: Coronal mass ejection;    Eruptive events;    Forecasting methods;    Forecasting system;    Solar energetic particles;    Solar particle events;    Space conditions;    Time interval;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-6596/632/1/012075/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1742-6596/632/1/012075

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) result from intense solar eruptive events such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and pose a significant threat for both personnel and infrastructure in space conditions. In this work, we present FORSPEF (Forecasting Solar Particle Events and Flares), a novel dual system, designed to perform forecasting of SEPs based on forecasting of solar flares, as well as independent SEP nowcasting. An overview of flare and SEP forecasting methods of choice is presented. Concerning SEP events, we make use for the first time of the newly re-calibrated GOES proton data within the energy range 6.0-243 MeV and we build our statistics on an extensive time interval that includes roughly 3 solar cycles (1984-2013). A new comprehensive catalogue of SEP events based on these data has been compiled including solar associations in terms of flare (magnitude, location) and CME (width, velocity) characteristics.