Development of multi-model ensemble climate estimates using open-source environment

International Conference and Early Career Scientists School on Environmental Observations, Modeling and Information Systems: ENVIROMIS-2018

生态环境科学;计算机科学

Klimenko, V.V.^1,2 ; Fedotova, E.V.^1,2

Moscow Power Engineering Institute, ul. Krasnokazarmennaya 14, Moscow

111250, Russia^1

A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pyzhevskiy per. 3, Moscow

119017, Russia^2

关键词: Computation codes;    Monotonic behaviour;    Multi-model ensemble;    Natural variability;    Open sources;    Preliminary analysis;    Reproducibilities;    Temporary structures;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/211/1/012084/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/211/1/012084

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

We demonstrate an application of an R open source environment to climatological problems, namely, to the construction of multi-model ensemble estimates. The R ecosystem is used to develop a computation code which automates an ensembling procedure. We apply the code to the CMIP5 runoff data in the Russian territory for a preliminary analysis of the long-term natural variability. It has been found that a multi-model projection demonstrates a non-monotonic behaviour which contradicts the classic "wet getting wetter" pattern, but perfectly corresponds to the long-term natural variability. A detailed analysis of reproducibility of the runoff temporary structure seems to be unavoidable for successful forecasting of the long-term runoff trends.