Periodicity Variation Analysis and Trend Prediction of Temperature in Yaoba Oasis

2018 1st International Conference on Environment Prevention and Pollution Control Technology

生态环境科学

Zhang, Jian^1,2 ; Li, Huanhuan^1,2 ; Lu, Yudong^1,2

Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecological Effects in Arid Region, Ministry of Education, Chang'An University, Xi'an

710054, China^1

School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Chang'An University, Xi'an

710054, China^2

关键词: Agricultural productions;    Global climate warming;    Mann-Kendall test;    Short periodicities;    Temperature changes;    Temperature data;    Variation analysis;    Weather stations;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/199/2/022006/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/199/2/022006

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

In order to study the periodicity variation and trend prediction of temperature in Yaoba Oasis, based on the temperature data from 1955 to 2012 of Barunbieli weather station, linear trend method, Mann-Kendall test and wavelet analysis were used to analyze the trend, mutation point and periodicity. The results showed that the temperature had a significantly warming trend nearly 60 years in Yaoba Oasis while there was one mutation point at 1986. The temperature had short periodicities of 4 and 9 years, so it would increase from 2016 to 2020 that it was closely related to the background of the global climate warming trend. This paper not only provided a scientific basis of the future short-term temperature change for Yaoba Oasis but also provided a theoretical reference for the local agricultural production.