Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of retention performance of green roofs considering aleatory and epistemic uncertainties

4th International Conference on Water Resource and Environment

地球科学;生态环境科学

You, L.W.^1 ; Tung, Y.K.^1 ; Yoo, C.S.^2

Disaster Prevention and Water Environment Research Center, National Chiao-Tung University, No. 75, Bo-Ai St., Hsinchu, Taiwan^1

Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, 145 Anam-ro, Seoungbuk-gu, Korea, Republic of^2

关键词: Aleatory and epistemic uncertainties;    Comprehensive evaluation;    Epistemic uncertainties;    Global sensitivity analysis;    Higher order effects;    Mean and standard deviations;    Methodological frameworks;    Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/191/1/012001/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/191/1/012001

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

A methodological framework is presented to integrate epistemic uncertainties into an aleatory-based probabilistic green roof model. In doing so, the sensitivity and uncertainty of the mean and standard deviation of retention ratio are assessed. Regression-based global sensitivity analysis showed that the first-order effect of model parameters plays the dominant role over the higher-order effect in contributing the overall uncertainty of statistical moments of retention ratio from the probabilistic green roof model used. Inclusion of epistemic uncertainties allows comprehensive evaluation of uncertainty associated with the performance of a green roof system, which further facilitates risk-based design of green roof systems.