Sino-Russian natural gas cooperation: structure and situation

1st International Geographical Conference of North Asian Countries "China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor: Geographical and Environmental Factors and Territorial Development Opportunities"

地球科学;生态环境科学;经济学

Li, Z.^1,2 ; Li, J.^1,2 ; Yang, Y.^1,2 ; Kolosov, V.A.^3,4 ; Ren, Y.^1,2 ; Chen, F.^1,2

Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China^1

University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijin, China^2

Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia^3

Department of Geography, Moscow University, Moscow, Russia^4

关键词: Export potential;    Gas imports;    Herfindahl-hirschman indices;    Natural gas price;    Security evaluation;    Sharp increase;    Trade volume;    Upward trend;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/190/1/012057/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/190/1/012057

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Sino-Russian natural gas cooperation has an important impact on natural gas trade in both Russia and China. Based on the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), this paper has established a natural gas import and export security evaluation system to scientifically assess Sino-Russian gas cooperation with respect to the Sino-Russian natural gas structure and situation under the influence of different factors. The research shows: the diversification of natural gas imports in China has gradually increased. China's natural gas imports from Russia are on the rise; When accounting for the export potential of the importing countries, China's HHIC-PE reveals a wavy upward trend after falling to a low in 2008, and then, upon reaching a peak in 2013, it presents a stable, albeit slightly declining, trend; After accounting for price, the overall HHIC-PE-OP declines, rises and declines again; HHIR shows a sharp decline after it increases, and it then rises again; After accounting for the import potential of exporting countries, the Russian natural gas export risk exhibits two M-type declines; The drop in natural gas prices in recent years has had a significant negative impact on Russian natural gas export security; In the next few years, the sharp increase in Sino-Russian natural gas trade volume will increase the import concentration of both Russia and China, which should guard against the rising natural gas import and export risk.