Variation Characteristics of Tropical Cyclones Making Landfall over China between 1951 and 2015 and Their Relationship with ENSO

2018 5th International Conference on Coastal and Ocean Engineering

Gu, Chenglin^1,2 ; Kang, Jiancheng^1 ; Yan, Guodong^3 ; Chen, Zhiwei^1 ; Niu, Mingxing^1

Urban Ecology and Environment Research Center Shanghai, Normal University, Shanghai

200234, China^1

Jiamusi University Department of Resources and Environment, Faculty of Science, Jiamusi

154007, China^2

Shanghai University of Engineering Science, Shanghai

200234, China^3

关键词: El Nino southern oscillation;    Inter-decadal variability;    Interannual variability;    Positive correlations;    Sea surface temperature (SST);    Sliding correlations;    Statistical relationship;    Variation characteristics;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/171/1/012026/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/171/1/012026

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Based on tropical cyclone (TC) data provided by the America Joint Typhoon Warning Center, this paper analyzes the variation characteristics of tropical cyclones making landfall over China during the 65-year period of 1951-2015 and their statistical relationship with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The conclusions are as follows. (1) The landfall frequency during the period of 1951-2015 has strong inter-annual and inter-decadal variability characteristics, and an abrupt change in the landfall frequency occurred in 1988. However, from the long-term variation frequency trend, the landfall frequency decreased slowly from the late 1980s to 2015. (2) The landfall intensity increased rapidly from the late 1950s to the early 1960s, with an abrupt change occurring in 1996. In addition, there is a significant decreasing trend and then an increasing trend from the late 1960s to 2015. (3) There are significant negative correlations between the landfall frequency and the sea surface temperature (SST) in the ENSO-3.4 region. All the sliding correlation coefficients are negative from 1961 to 2002. A strong abrupt change in their correlation occurred in 1970, changing from a weak negative to a strong negative correlation. (4) There are no significant negative correlations between the landfall intensity and the SST in the ENSO-3.4 region, and their sliding correlation coefficient of inter-annual variability shows that there is an alternating appearance of positive and negative correlations. A strong abrupt change occurs in 1999, changing from a weak positive correlation to a strong negative correlation. The significant negative correlation occurred in the 2005. (5) The TC genesis locations move to the southeast in El Nino years and shift to the northeast in La Nina years. (6) TC frequency that influences the Chinese continental coast line in El Nino years is less than that which influences Japan. Meanwhile, in La Nina years, the TC frequency that influences Japan and its surrounding waters, the China Sea, the BohaiSea, and the South China Sea, increases, while it decreases in the TaiwanProvince.