Forecasting the Number of Electric Vehicles: A Case of Beijing

2nd International Symposium on Resource Exploration and Environmental Science

生态环境科学

Zhu, Zhihong^1 ; Du, Haoming^1

School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiao Tong University, Beijing, China^1

关键词: Bass Diffusion Model;    Battery technology;    Diffusion data;    Electric Vehicles (EVs);    Environmental pollutions;    Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process;    Historical data;    Weighted averages;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/170/4/042037/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/170/4/042037

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Electric vehicles (EVs) have enjoyed fast-growing adoption in recent years, mainly thanks to the concern of climate change, environmental pollution, advancement of battery technology and expeditiously rising prices of crude oil. Rationally forecasting the number of EVs is quite important to their orderly development. This paper forecasts the number of EVs using the Bass diffusion model. Due to lack of sufficient historical data of EVs, analogy method is used to estimate the parameters of EVs according to the history diffusion data of private cars. The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is used to calculate the weighted average of the main factors that influence users' decisions of purchasing vehicles to estimate the parameters of Bass model.