Research on China's Electricity Demand in 2017 and 2018

2nd International Symposium on Resource Exploration and Environmental Science

生态环境科学

Tan, Xiandong^1 ; Wu, Shanshan^1 ; Shan, Baoguo^1 ; Wang, Xiang^1 ; Zhang, Hongxian^1

State Grid Energy Research Institute, Beijing, China^1

关键词: China's electricities;    Electricity demand forecasting;    Electricity demands;    Forecasting modeling;    Residential consumption;    Residential Electricity demands;    Sectoral analysis;    Tertiary industries;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/170/4/042001/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/170/4/042001

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Based on the bottom-up modeling approach, this paper establishes a electricity demand forecasting model covering primary industry, secondary industry, tertiary industry, residential consumption and key sub-industries by using the method of sectoral analysis. The forecasting model can provide a scientific measure for determining the trend of China's electricity demand in 2017 and 2018. The forecast results show that China's economy will grow steadily in 2017, GDP growth rate is estimated to be about 6.8%, and total electricity demand is estimated to be 6354 TWh with a growth rate of 6.3%. The contribution rates of three industries and residential electricity demand will be 2.3%, 55.7%, 22.7% and 19.3%. In 2018, China's economy will remain stable with an estimated GDP growth rate of 6.7%, total electricity demand will be 6674 TWh with a growth rate of 5.0%. The contribution rates of the three industries and residential electricity demand will be 2.6%, 57.6%, 22.8% and 17.0% respectively.