The prediction of energy state in California based on time series

2nd International Symposium on Resource Exploration and Environmental Science

生态环境科学

Bai, Yuxi^1 ; Huang, Chao^1 ; Niu, Yanshu^1

School of North China, Electric Power University, Beijing

102206, China^1

关键词: Clean energy;    Clean energy consumption;    Energy productions;    Evolution trend;    Future energies;    Multiple regression model;    Optimal energy;    Total energy;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/170/3/032090/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/170/3/032090

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

In order to determine the optimal energy profile in California (CA), this paper applies two basic models to data mining based on the simple processing of the given data, so as to analyse the trend and predict the future effect, and then put forward a solution by integrating a variety of influencing factors. First of all, through data analysis and multiple regression model, we get the specific evolution of CA from 1960 to 2009 from two aspects about energy consumption and clean energy consumption. Through the analysis of this specific evolution, the total energy profile, clean energy profile can be obtained respectively. Secondly, based on the evolution trend of the relationship between energy production, energy consumption and clean energy consumption from 1960 to 2009, we used the ARMA model in time series analysis to fit the data and predict the future energy consumption situation. Finally, taking all these factors into account, the clean energy use targets for 2025 and 2050 were set and three proposals for action were made for CA.