The Establishment of National Vulnerability Assessment System under Climate Impact

2nd International Symposium on Resource Exploration and Environmental Science

生态环境科学

Su, Han^1 ; Li, Wenjing^1 ; Zhang, Peilei^1 ; Qi, Shanshan^1 ; Cao, Yunshi^1

School of Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao, China^1

关键词: Climate indicators;    Correlation coefficient;    Direct and indirect impacts;    Evaluation systems;    Percentage points;    Precipitation variability;    Temperature variance;    Vulnerability assessments;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/170/3/032085/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/170/3/032085

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

The effects of Climate Change, to include increased droughts, changing animal and plant ranges, and sea level rise, vary from region to region. Many of these effects will alter the national vulnerability. Internationally, we need to set up an evaluation system to characterize the impact of climate on national vulnerability. We identify four elements of the climatic element: precipitation variability, temperature variance, CCPI, natural disasters. We use AHP to set up an evaluation system to identify the direct and indirect impacts of climate. Besides, the degree of vulnerability of a country is automatically identified through neural network mechanism. We use SPSS software to test the model. 178 groups of regression data are obtained from the model and FFP, and the correlation coefficients are 0.95. We apply the model NVS/CNVS to Afghanistan and China. By comparing the two results, we conclude that climate has reduced the vulnerability of Afghanistan by 1.4 percentage points. For China, in considering climate factors, the vulnerability is significantly reduced by 13 percentage points. Finally, we put forward policies and countermeasures for every country to mitigate the impact of climate change on vulnerability.