Application of chaotic approach in forecasting highland's temperature time series

9th IGRSM International Conference and Exhibition on Geospatial & Remote Sensing

地球科学;计算机科学

Abd Hamid, Nor Zila^1

Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Sultan Idris Education University, Tanjong Malim, Perak

35900, Malaysia^1

关键词: Approximation methods;    Cameron highlands;    Chaotic behaviour;    Correlation coefficient;    Forecasting purpose;    Local mean;    Phase-space plot;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/169/1/012107/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/169/1/012107

学科分类：计算机科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

This study focuses on application of chaotic approach in forecasting highland's temperature time series. Chaotic approach begins by detecting the chaotic behaviour of the temperature time series using phase space plot and Cao method. Then, the local mean approximation method will be used for forecasting purposes. The temperature time series observed at Cameron Highlands is detected as chaotic in behaviour. Due to the chaotic behaviour, the forecasting is done through the local mean approximation method, a chaotic based method. The forecasting result shown that correlation coefficient value between the observed and forecasted time series is 0.9395. Correlation coefficient approaching to one shown that the forecasted result is excellent. This indicates that in particular, the local mean approximation method can be used to forecast the temperature time series in highland area. In general, chaotic approach is a useful approach that can be used to analyse and forecast the temperature time series.