The application of ship oil spill risk prediction in Dongying emergency capacity planning

2018 2nd International Workshop on Renewable Energy and Development

能源学;经济学

Zhu, Yuxin^1 ; Wang, Ying^1 ; Xu, Xin^1 ; Li, Mingchang^1

Laboratory of Environmental Protection in Water Transport Engineering, Tianjin Research Institute of Water Transport Engineering, Tanggu, Tianjin, China^1

关键词: Capacity planning;    Oil particles;    Oil-spill model;    Port areas;    Prediction model;    Risk predictions;    Stochastic simulation methods;    Tidal currents;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/153/3/032044/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/153/3/032044

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

This study combines the hydrodynamic prediction model MIKE21 and the oil spill model OILMAP. Using the hydrodynamic prediction model to provide the accurate tidal current field for oil spill model, we apply oil particle tracing method and stochastic simulation method to predict and evaluate the risk of oil spill in the planned port area. The numerical simulation results show that the current and the wind will directly affect the range and trajectory of the oil film. Once the oil spill accident happens, the area with probability greater than 70% is about 191.5km2, which is mainly affected by 5km within two sides of port. Through risk prediction and assessment, we can provide necessary support for the regional emergency forces.