Integration of logistic regression and multicriteria land evaluation to simulation establishment of sustainable paddy field zone in Indramayu Regency, West Java Province, Indonesia

4th International Symposium on LAPAN-IPB Satellite for Food Security and Environmental Monitoring

农业科学;生态环境科学

Nahib, Irmadi^1 ; Suryanta, Jaka^1 ; Niedyawati^1 ; Kardono, Priyadi^1 ; Turmudi^1 ; Lestari, Sri^1 ; Windiastuti, Rizka^1

Geospatial Information Agency, Jl Raya Jakarta Bogor KM 46, Cibinong, Jawa Barat

16911, Indonesia^1

关键词: Grain harvest;    Influential factors;    Land evaluation;    Local functions;    Logistic regressions;    Multi-criteria;    Protection policy;    Relative operating characteristics;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/149/1/012005/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/149/1/012005

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Ministry of Agriculture have targeted production of 1.718 million tons of dry grain harvest during period of 2016-2021 to achieve food self-sufficiency, through optimization of special commodities including paddy, soybean and corn. This research was conducted to develop a sustainable paddy field zone delineation model using logistic regression and multicriteria land evaluation in Indramayu Regency. A model was built on the characteristics of local function conversion by considering the concept of sustainable development. Spatial data overlay was constructed using available data, and then this model was built upon the occurrence of paddy field between 1998 and 2015. Equation for the model of paddy field changes obtained was: logit (paddy field conversion) = - 2.3048 + 0.0032X1- 0.0027X2+ 0.0081∗X3+ 0.0025∗X4+ 0.0026∗X5+ 0.0128∗X6- 0.0093∗X7+ 0.0032∗X8+ 0.0071∗X9- 0.0046∗X10where X1to X10were variables that determine the occurrence of changes in paddy fields, with a result value of Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) of 0.8262. The weakest variable in influencing the change of paddy field function was X7(paddy field price), while the most influential factor was X1(distance from river). Result of the logistic regression was used as a weight for multicriteria land evaluation, which recommended three scenarios of paddy fields protection policy: standard, protective, and permissive. The result of this modelling, the priority paddy fields for protected scenario were obtained, as well as the buffer zones for the surrounding paddy fields.