Analysis on Temporal Change and Grey Relation of Transportation Carbon Emissions in Jilin Province

2018 2nd International Conference on Environmental and Energy Engineering

生态环境科学;能源学

Gao, Biao^1,2 ; Sun, Xiao-Dong^2

College of Earth Sciences, Jilin University, No. 2199, building street, Changchun, Jilin

130061, China^1

College of Tourism and Geography Science, Baicheng Normal University, No. 57, Zhongxing West Road, Baicheng, Jilin

137000, China^2

关键词: Carbon emissions;    Economic development;    Grey relational analysis;    Measurement model;    Population numbers;    Prediction model;    Transportation energy consumption;    Transportation investments;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/146/1/012009/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/146/1/012009

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Based on basic datum of transportation energy consumption,this paper measured transportation carbon emissionsfrom 1999 to 2015 in Jilin Province by using measurement model of carbon emissions, and analysed its temporal change.On this basis, grey relational analysis model was used to investigate evolution relationshipof transportation carbon emissionsand relevant factors in Jilin Province. The results indicated that temporal change of transportation carbon emissions was divided into three phases: smooth progression and slight elevationphase, rapid-growth phase, slow-growth phase, the quantities of transportationcarbon emissions increased from 993750t to 3592514t. Diesel, raw coal, electricity power and gasoline were the main factors that affecting total carbon emissions because they had a larger proportion of carbon emissions, in the above factors, temporal change tendency of diesel carbon emissions was basically the same as the total carbon emissions. There was a close relationship betweentransportation carbon emissionsand all relevant factors in Jilin Province, their order of grey relational valuewas GDP > urbanization rate > population number > unit GDP energy consumption > transportation investment > private cars quantity. On the basis of prediction model, according to the situation of existing economic development, transportation carbon emissions will show a low growth tendency in next five years in Jilin Province.