Variation of Time Domain Failure Probabilities of Jack-up with Wave Return Periods

4th International Conference on Civil and Environmental Engineering for Sustainability

地球科学;生态环境科学;经济学

Idris, Ahmad^1 ; Harahap, Indra S H^1 ; Ahmed Ali, Montassir Osman^1

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Petronas Bandar Universiti, Seri Iskandar

32610, Malaysia^1

关键词: Jack up;    Karhunen Loeve Expansion;    Prolate spheroidal wave functions;    Return periods;    Sea surface elevation;    Stochastic response;    Time dependent reliability analysis;    Wave load;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/140/1/012120/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/140/1/012120

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

This study evaluated failure probabilities of jack up units on the framework of time dependent reliability analysis using uncertainty from different sea states representing different return period of the design wave. Surface elevation for each sea state was represented by Karhunen-Loeve expansion method using the eigenfunctions of prolate spheroidal wave functions in order to obtain the wave load. The stochastic wave load was propagated on a simplified jack up model developed in commercial software to obtain the structural response due to the wave loading. Analysis of the stochastic response to determine the failure probability in excessive deck displacement in the framework of time dependent reliability analysis was performed by developing Matlab codes in a personal computer. Results from the study indicated that the failure probability increases with increase in the severity of the sea state representing a longer return period. Although the results obtained are in agreement with the results of a study of similar jack up model using time independent method at higher values of maximum allowable deck displacement, it is in contrast at lower values of the criteria where the study reported that failure probability decreases with increase in the severity of the sea state.