Risk Assessment of Pollution Emergencies in Water Source Areas of the Hanjiang-to-Weihe River Diversion Project

3rd International Conference on Energy Equipment Science and Engineering

Liu, Luyao^1 ; Feng, Minquan^1

State Key Laboratory Base of Eco-hydraulic Engineering in Arid Area, Xi'An University of Technology, Xi'an

710048, China^1

关键词: Diversion project;    Pollution emergencies;    Risk probabilities;    Sequential Monte Carlo algorithms;    State simulation;    Sudden water pollutions;    Water quality simulation;    Water source areas;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/128/1/012159/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/128/1/012159

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

[Objective] This study quantitatively evaluated risk probabilities of sudden water pollution accidents under the influence of risk sources, thus providing an important guarantee for risk source identification during water diversion from the Hanjiang River to the Weihe River. [Methods] The research used Bayesian networks to represent the correlation between accidental risk sources. It also adopted the sequential Monte Carlo algorithm to combine water quality simulation with state simulation of risk sources, thereby determining standard-exceeding probabilities of sudden water pollution accidents. [Results] When the upstream inflow was 138.15 m3/s and the average accident duration was 48 h, the probabilities were 0.0416 and 0.0056 separately. When the upstream inflow was 55.29 m3/s and the average accident duration was 48 h, the probabilities were 0.0225 and 0.0028 separately. [Conclusions] The research conducted a risk assessment on sudden water pollution accidents, thereby providing an important guarantee for the smooth implementation, operation, and water quality of the Hanjiang-to-Weihe River Diversion Project.