Forecast and analysis of the ratio of electric energy to terminal energy consumption for global energy internet

International Conference on Energy Engineering and Environmental Protection 2017

能源学;生态环境科学

Wang, Wei^1 ; Zhong, Ming^2 ; Cheng, Ling^2 ; Jin, Lu^2 ; Shen, Si^3

State Grid Corporation of China, No 86, West Chang'an Avenue, Beijing, China^1

China Electric Power Research Institute, No 15, East Qinghexiaoying RD, Haidian Dist, Beijing, China^2

North China Electric Power University, No 2, Beinong RD, Huilongguan, Changping Dist, Bejing, China^3

关键词: Co-integration model;    Combination forecasting models;    Combination method;    Economic structure;    Energy-use efficiency;    Forecast and analysis;    Multiple linear regression method;    Variance-covariance;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/121/5/052061/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/121/5/052061

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

In the background of building global energy internet, it has both theoretical and realistic significance for forecasting and analysing the ratio of electric energy to terminal energy consumption. This paper firstly analysed the influencing factors of the ratio of electric energy to terminal energy and then used combination method to forecast and analyse the global proportion of electric energy. And then, construct the cointegration model for the proportion of electric energy by using influence factor such as electricity price index, GDP, economic structure, energy use efficiency and total population level. At last, this paper got prediction map of the proportion of electric energy by using the combination-forecasting model based on multiple linear regression method, trend analysis method, and variance-covariance method. This map describes the development trend of the proportion of electric energy in 2017-2050 and the proportion of electric energy in 2050 was analysed in detail using scenario analysis.