Quantitative Research on the Relationship between Yield of Winter Wheat and Agroclimatological Resources—the Case Study from Yanzhou District, Shandong Province, China

2017 3rd International Conference on Environmental Science and Material Application

生态环境科学;材料科学

Yan, Maoling^1 ; Liu, Pingzeng^1 ; Zhang, Chao^1 ; Zheng, Yong^2 ; Wang, Xizhi^3 ; Zhang, Yan^1 ; Chen, Weijie^1 ; Zhao, Rui^1

Shandong Agricultural University, College of Information Science and Engineering, Tai'an, China^1

Shandong Provincial Department of Agriculture, Information Center, Ji'nan, China^2

Yanzhou District Agricultural Bureau, Jining, China^3

关键词: Agricultural production management;    Agricultural productions;    Agro-meteorological data;    Correlation analysis;    Daily precipitations;    Meteorological factors;    Multiple regression model;    Quantitative research;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/108/4/042098/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/108/4/042098

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Agroclimatological resources provide material and energy for agricultural production. This study is aimed to analyze the impact of selected climate factors change on wheat yield over the different growth period applied quantitatively method, by comparing two different time division modules of wheat growth cycle- monthly empirical-statistical multiple regression models ( From October to June of next year ) and growth stage empirical-statistical multiple regression models (Including sowing stage, seedling stage, tillering stage, overwintering period, regreening period, jointing stage, heading stage, maturity stage) analysis of relationship between agrometeorological data and growth stage records and winter wheat production in Yanzhou, Shandong Province of China. Correlation analysis(CA)was done for 35 years (from 1981 to 2015) between crop yield and corresponding weather parameters including daily mean temperature, sunshine duration, and average daily precipitation selected from 18 different meteorological factors. The results shows that the greatest impact on the winter wheat yield is the precipitation overwintering period in this area, each 1mm increase in daily mean rainfall was associated with 201.64 kg/hm2 lowered output. Moreover, the temperature and sunshine duration in heading period and maturity stage also exert significant influence on the output, every 1°C increase in daily mean temperature was associated with 199.85kg/hm2 adding output, every 1h increase in mean sunshine duration was associated with 130.68kg/hm2 reduced output. Comparing with the results of experiment which using months as step sizes and using farming as step sizes was in better agreement with the fluctuation in meteorological yield, offered a better explanation on the growth mechanism of wheat. Eventually the results indicated that 3 factors affects the yield during different growing periods of wheat in different extent and provided more specific reference to guide the agricultural production management in this area.