Latent fluctuation periods and long-term forecasting of the level of Markakol lake

3rd International Conference Environment and Sustainable Development of Territories: Ecological Challenges of the 21st Century

生态环境科学;地球科学;经济学

Madibekov, A.S.^1 ; Babkin, A.V.^2 ; Musakulkyzy, A.^1 ; Cherednichenko, A.V.^3

Institute of Geography, Pushkin str., 99, Almaty

050000, Kazakhstan^1

Department of Atmospheric Dynamics and Space Geosciences, Russian State Hydrometeorological University, Maloohtynskay str., 97, Saint-Petersburg

195196, Russia^2

Zhasyl Damu JSC, Seifullin str., 597, Almaty

050022, Kazakhstan^3

关键词: Lake levels;    Leadtime;    Long-term forecasting;    Mean values;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/107/1/012035/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/107/1/012035

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

The analysis of time series of the level of Markakol Lake by the method of "Periodicities" reveals in its variations the harmonics with the periods of 12 and 14 years, respectively. The verification forecasts of the lake level by the trend tendency and by its combination with these sinusoids were computed with the lead time of 5 and 10 years. The estimation of the forecast results by the new independent data permitted to conclude that forecasts by the combination of the sinusoids and trend tendency are better than by the trend tendency only. They are no worse than the mean value prediction.