Passenger Flow Forecasting Research for Airport Terminal Based on SARIMA Time Series Model

1st International Global on Renewable Energy and Development

Li, Ziyu^1 ; Bi, Jun^1 ; Li, Zhiyin^1

MOE Key Laboratory for Urban Transportation Complex Systems Theory and Technology, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing

100044, China^1

关键词: Airport terminals;    International airport;    Optimal allocation;    Passenger traffic flow;    Scientific decisions;    Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving averages;    Short term prediction;    Time series modeling;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/100/1/012146/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/100/1/012146

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Based on the data of practical operating of Kunming Changshui International Airport during2016, this paper proposes Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model to predict the passenger flow. This article not only considers the non-stationary and autocorrelation of the sequence, but also considers the daily periodicity of the sequence. The prediction results can accurately describe the change trend of airport passenger flow and provide scientific decision support for the optimal allocation of airport resources and optimization of departure process. The result shows that this model is applicable to the short-Term prediction of airport terminal departure passenger traffic and the average error ranges from 1% to 3%. The difference between the predicted and the true values of passenger traffic flow is quite small, which indicates that the model has fairly good passenger traffic flow prediction ability.