Prediction model of energy consumption in Jiangsu Province based on constraint condition of carbon emission

2017 International Conference on New Energy and Future Energy System

Chang, Z.G.^1 ; Xue, T.T.^2 ; Chen, Y.J.^1 ; Chao, X.H.^1

Department of Mining, Xinjiang Institute of Engineering, Urumqi

830000, China^1

Department of Basis Teaching, Xinjiang Institute of Engineering, Urumqi

830000, China^2

关键词: Carbon dioxide emissions;    Constraint conditions;    Consumption structure;    Economic development;    Energy saving and emission reductions;    Energy structures;    Gray gm(1 ,1) models;    Prediction model;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/93/1/012038/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/93/1/012038

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

In order to achieve the targets for energy conservation and economic development goals in Jiangsu Province under the constraint of carbon emission, this paper uses the gray GM (1,1) model to predict and optimize the consumption structure of major energy sources (coal, oil, natural gas, etc.) in Jiangsu province in the »13th Five-Year» period and the next seven years. The predictions meet the requirement of reducing carbon dioxide emissions per unit GDP of China by 50%. The results show that the proposed approach and model is effective. Finally, we put forward opinions and suggestions on the way of energy-saving and emission-reduction, the adjustment of energy structure and the policy of coal consumption in Jiangsu Province.