Prediction of the demographic situation in urban districts as a factor of sustainable social and economic development of the transport infrastructure

Energy Management of Municipal Transportation Facilities and Transport - EMMFT 2017

Davydova, Tatyana^1 ; Zhutaeva, Evgeniya^1 ; Dubrovskaya, Tatyana^1

Voronezh State Technical University, Moscow Avenue, 14, Voronezh

394026, Russia^1

关键词: Birth rates;    Death rates;    Economic situation;    Migration rates;    Social and economic development;    Transport infrastructure;    Urban transport;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/90/1/012168/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/90/1/012168

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Article considers the significance of the demographic forecast for the effective operation of the providing system of social and economic development of the urban transport infrastructure. Analysis of the factors which influence on the population of the city of Voronezh was performed and the population forecast for the year 2020 is presented on the basis of the classification by year of birth. Calculation was performed in three variants (with consideration of the use of classification by year of birth) in connection with an impact of modern social and economic situation on the negative tendencies formed in demographic processes. In the basis of variants were grounded different approaches to the dynamics of demographic processes. The main demographic indicators are the number of permanent residents, birth rates, death rates, migration rates. According to the results of the study, population of the urban district of the city of Voronezh is expected to increase in the specified period and migration inflow of the population has a dominant role in the formation in the formation of the number of the city population.