The effect of time series length on runoff characteristics analysis

3rd International Conference on Water Resource and Environment

地球科学;生态环境科学

Zhang, S.^1 ; Liu, D.F.^1 ; Huang, Q.^1 ; Wei, X.^1 ; Feng, J.L.^2 ; Lin, Mu^3

State Key Laboratory Base of Eco-hydraulic in Arid Area, School of Water Resources and Hydropower, Xi'An University of Technology, Xi'an

710048, China^1

Shanxi Provincal Water and Soil Conservation and Ecological Environment Construction Center, Taiyuan Shanxi

030002, China^2

School of Statistics and Mathematics, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing

100081, China^3

关键词: Annual runoff;    Data series;    Effect of time;    Observation data;    Runoff characteristics;    Uncertain factors;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/82/1/012047/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/82/1/012047

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

The length of time series is of great importance, which is an uncertain factor in runoff characteristics analysis, especially in the analysis of trend and period. This paper investigates the tendency and period using runoff observation data of 107 years from 1909 to 2015 at Monticello hydrological station in the Upper Sangamon River in USA. The data series of 30 years, 40 years, 50 years and so on until 100 years and 107 years are selected to test their trend and period, respectively, and then are compared with each other. The results show that, with the increase of time series length, the tendency and period tend to be stable, and the annual runoff begins to show a significant increase trend once the length of time series is more than 80 years. The period tends to a dynamic stability value of 22 years when the time series length is more than 70 years. When the series length is larger than 70 years, the results of runoff characteristics analysis are much more reliable.