Empirical analyses on the development trend of non-ferrous metal industry under China's new normal

2nd International Conference on Materials Science, Energy Technology and Environmental Engineering

材料科学;能源学;生态环境科学

Li, C.X.^1 ; Liu, C.X.^2 ; Zhang, Q.L.^3

Faculty of Land Resource Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming

650093, China^1

School of Urban and Environment, Yunnan University of Finance and Economics, Kunming

650221, China^2

School of Resources and Safety Engineering, Central South University, Changsha

410083, China^3

关键词: Development trends;    Economic structure;    Empirical analysis;    Industrial chain;    Input-output data;    Non-ferrous metal industry;    Non-ferrous metals industry;    Resource advantage;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/81/1/012088/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/81/1/012088

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

The CGE model of Yunnan's macro economy was constructed based on the input-output data of Yunnan in 2012, and the development trend of the non-ferrous metals industry (NMI) under the China's new normal was simulated. In view of this, according to different expected economic growth, and optimized economic structure, the impact on development of Yunnan NMI was simulated. The results show that the NMI growth rate is expected to decline when the economic growth show a downward trend, but the change of the proportion is relatively small. Moreover, the structure in proportion was adjusted to realize the economic structure optimization, while the proportion of NMI in GDP will decline. In contrast, the biggest influence on the NMI is the change of economic structure. From the statistics of last two years, we can see that NMI is growing, and at the same time, its proportion is declining, which is consistent with the results of simulation. But the adjustment of economic structure will take a long time. It is need to improve the proportion of deep-processing industry, extend the industrial chain, enhance the value chain, so as to be made good use of resource advantage.