Cellular Automata Modelling in Predicting the Development of Settlement Areas, A Case Study in The Eastern District of Pontianak Waterfront City

CITIES 2016 International Conference: Coastal Planning for Sustainable Maritime Development

Nurhidayati, E.^1 ; Buchori, I.^1 ; Mussadun^1 ; Fariz, T.R.^2

Diponegoro University, Jl. Prof. H. Soedarto Tembalang, Semarang

50275, Indonesia^1

Semarang State University, Sekaran Gunung Pati Semarang

50229, Indonesia^2

关键词: Binary logistic regression;    Cellular automata modelling;    Elevation contours;    Land-use change;    Markov model;    Overall accuracies;    Regression coefficient;    Socio-economics;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/79/1/012010/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/79/1/012010

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Pontianak waterfront city as water-based urban has the potential of water resources, socio-economic, cultural, tourism and riverine settlements. Settlements areas in the eastern district of Pontianak waterfront city is located in the triangle of Kapuas river and Landak river. This study uses quantitative-GIS methods that integrates binary logistic regression and Cellular Automata-Markov models. The data used in this study such as satellite imagery Quickbird 2003, Ikonos 2008 and elevation contour interval 1 meter. This study aims to discover the settlement land use changes in 2003-2014 and to predict the settlements areas in 2020. This study results the accuracy in predicting of changes in settlements areas shows overall accuracy (79.74%) and the highest kappa index (0.55). The prediction results show that settlement areas (481.98 Ha) in 2020 and the increasingly of settlement areas (6.80 Ha/year) in 2014-2020. The development of settlement areas in 2020 shows the highest land expansion in Parit Mayor Village. The results of regression coefficient value (0) of flooding variable, so flooding did not influence to the development of settlement areas in the eastern district of Pontianak because the building's adaptation of rumah panggung's settlements was very good which have adjusted to the height of tidal flood.