Forest cover dynamics analysis and prediction modelling using logistic regression model (case study: forest cover at Indragiri Hulu Regency, Riau Province)

3rd International Symposium on LAPAN-IPB Satellite For Food Security and Environmental Monitoring 2016

地球科学;轻工业;生态环境科学

Nahib, Irmadi^1 ; Suryanta, Jaka^1

Geospatial Information Agency, Jl Raya Jakarta Bogor KM 46 Cibinong, Jawa Barat

16911, Indonesia^1

关键词: Dynamics analysis;    Explanatory variables;    Forest cover change;    Forest degradation;    Global carbon cycle;    Logistic Regression modeling;    Prediction modelling;    Reducing emissions;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/54/1/012044/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/54/1/012044

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Forest destruction, climate change and global warming could reduce an indirect forest benefit because forest is the largest carbon sink and it plays a very important role in global carbon cycle. To support Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD +) program, people pay attention of forest cover changes as the basis for calculating carbon stock changes. This study try to explore the forest cover dynamics as well as the prediction model of forest cover in Indragiri Hulu Regency, Riau Province Indonesia. The study aims to analyse some various explanatory variables associated with forest conversion processes and predict forest cover change using logistic regression model (LRM). The main data used in this study is Land use/cover map (1990 - 2011). Performance of developed model was assessed through a comparison of the predicted model of forest cover change and the actual forest cover in 2011. The analysis result showed that forest cover has decreased continuously between 1990 and 2011, up to the loss of 165,284.82 ha (35.19 %) of forest area. The LRM successfully predicted the forest cover for the period 2010 with reasonably high accuracy (ROC = 92.97 % and 70.26 %).