Modelling tropical cyclone hazards under climate change scenario using geospatial techniques

2nd International Conference of Indonesian Society for Remote Sensing 2016

地球科学;计算机科学

Hoque, M.A.^1,2 ; Phinn, S.^1 ; Roelfsema, C.^1 ; Childs, I.^3

Remote Sensing Research Centre, School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management, University of Queensland, Brisbane

QLD

4072, Australia^1

Department of Geography and Environment, Jagannath University, Dhaka

1100, Bangladesh^2

Queensland Centre for Population Research, School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management, University of Queensland, Brisbane

QLD

4072, Australia^3

关键词: Climate change scenarios;    Digital elevation model;    Frequency Analysis;    Geospatial techniques;    Local government areas;    Mitigation plans;    Natural disasters;    Sea-level rise scenarios;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/47/1/012024/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/47/1/012024

学科分类：计算机科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Tropical cyclones are a common and devastating natural disaster in many coastal areas of the world. As the intensity and frequency of cyclones will increase under the most likely future climate change scenarios, appropriate approaches at local scales (1-5 km) are essential for producing sufficiently detailed hazard models. These models are used to develop mitigation plans and strategies for reducing the impacts of cyclones. This study developed and tested a hazard modelling approach for cyclone impacts in Sarankhola upazila, a 151 km2local government area in coastal Bangladesh. The study integrated remote sensing, spatial analysis and field data to model cyclone generated hazards under a climate change scenario at local scales covering 2. A storm surge model integrating historical cyclone data and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was used to generate the cyclone hazard maps for different cyclone return periods. Frequency analysis was carried out using historical cyclone data (1960 - 2015) to calculate the storm surge heights of 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 year return periods of cyclones. Local sea level rise scenario of 0.34 m for the year 2050 was simulated with 20 and 50 years return periods. Our results showed that cyclone affected areas increased with the increase of return periods. Around 63% of study area was located in the moderate to very high hazard zones for 50 year return period, while it was 70% for 100 year return period. The climate change scenarios increased the cyclone impact area by 6-10 % in every return period. Our findings indicate this approach has potential to model the cyclone hazards for developing mitigation plans and strategies to reduce the future impacts of cyclones.