The asymmetric effect of coal price on the China's macro economy using NARDL model

2016 International Conference on New Energy and Future Energy System

Hou, J.C.^1 ; Yang, M.C.^1

School of Economics and Management, Shanghai University of Electric Power, Shanghai

200090, China^1

关键词: Asymmetric effects;    Auto-regressive;    China's macro economies;    Coal price fluctuation;    Price rise;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/40/1/012012/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/40/1/012012

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

The present work endeavors to explore the asymmetric effect of coal price on the China's macro economy by applying nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model for the period of January 2005 to June 2015. The obtained results indicate that the coal price has a strong asymmetric effect on China's macro economy in the long-run. Namely one percent increase in coal price leads to 0.6194 percent of the China's macro economy increase; and while the coal price is reduces by 1 percent, the China's macro economy will decrease by 0.008 percent. These data indicate that when coal price rises, the effect on China's macro economy is far greater than the price decline. In the short-run, coal price fluctuation has a positive effect on the China's macro economy.