Research framework of integrated simulation on bilateral interaction between water cycle and socio-economic development

International Conference on Water Resource and Environment 2016

地球科学;生态环境科学

Hao, C.F.^1,2 ; Yang, X.L.^3 ; Niu, C.W.^2 ; Jia, Y.W.^2

Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing

100084, China^1

State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, 1 Yu-Yuan-Tan South Road, Beijing

100038, China^2

Beijing Institute of Water, 21 Chegongzhuang West Road, Beijing

100044, China^3

关键词: Computable general equilibrium;    Distributed hydrological model;    Hydrological process;    Integrated simulations;    Research frameworks;    Social development;    Socio-economic development;    Socio-economic systems;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/39/1/012064/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/39/1/012064

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

The mechanism of bilateral interaction between natural water cycle evolution and socio-economic development has been obscured in current research due to the complexity of the hydrological process and the socio-economic system. The coupling of economic model CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) and distributed hydrological model WEP (Water and Energy transfer Processes) provides a model-based tool for research on response and feedback of water cycle and social development, as well as economic prospects under the constraint of water resources. On one hand, water policies, such as water use limitation and water price adjustment under different levels of socio-economic development, are to be evaluated by CGE model as assumed conditions and corresponding results of water demand could be put into WEP model to simulate corresponding response during the whole process of water cycle. On the other hand, variation of available water resources quantity under different scenarios simulated by WEP model may provide proper limitation for water demand in CGE model, and corresponding change of economic factors could indicate the influence of water resources constraints on socio-economic development. The research is believed to be helpful for better understanding of bilateral interaction between water and society.