Application of the multiplicative cascade model for the description of the seismic regime and for the seismic hazard assessment

3rd National scientific conference with foreign participants "Geodynamical Processes and Natural Hazards"

生态环境科学

Rodkin, M.V.^1^2

Institute of Marine Geology and Geophysics, Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Nauki 1B, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk

693022, Russia^1

Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Profsoyuznaya 84/32, Moscow

117997, Russia^2

关键词: Earthquake prediction;    Geophysical medium;    Hierarchical structures;    Large earthquakes;    Multiplicative cascades;    Seismic hazard assessment;    Self-organizing criticality;    Statistical descriptions;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/324/1/012001/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/324/1/012001

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Seismic process is usually considered as a realization of the regime of self-organizing criticality (SOC-model). This model meets, however, definite problems, besides it gives only a statistical description of the seismic regime. The multiplicative cascade model (MCM) treats the seismic regime as an assemblage of randomly developing episodes of avalanche-like relaxation, occurring in a set of similar metastable sub-systems. In the simplest linear variant without memory the MCM is defined by the flow of events and by two parameters characterizing the hierarchical structure and the level of metastability of a geophysical medium. An advantage of such approach consists in a clear physical sense of character of the model. The MCM model b-value behavior is compared with the complex of typical anomalies revealed in result of examination of a large earthquake generalized vicinity (LEGV). The LEGV vicinity is constructed of earthquakes falling into the zones of influence of a large number (300, 500, or 1000) of largest earthquakes. The construction and examination of LEGV gives possibility to increase radically the available statistics, crucially diminish a random component of the seismic regime, and in result to reveal the typical features of pre-and post-shock seismic activity in details. The combined use of MCM and LEGV methods gives possibility to interpret a few features of the seismic regime and to suggest the typical scenario of the fore-and aftershock regimes of seismicity. The possibilities of application of the obtained results for earthquake prediction are discussed.