The forecast of demographic situation in Russia up to 2033

International Scientific Conference «AGRITECH-2019: Agribusiness, Environmental Engineering and Biotechnologies»

农业科学;生态环境科学;生物科学

Golubkov, V.V.^1 ; Yakovets, T.Y.^2 ; Malafeyev, O.A.^3 ; Zaitseva, I.V.^3^4 ; Kuschev, P.M.^5

Federal Research Center Informatics and Management, Russian Academy of Sciences, Vavilova str., 44, Moscow

119333, Russia^1

Pitirim Sorokin-Nikolai Kondratieff International Institute, Sretensky Boulevard 6/1, Moscow

101000, Russia^2

Saint-Petersburg State University, 7/9 Universitetskaya nab., Saint-Petersburg

199034, Russia^3

Stavropol State Agrarian University, Zootekhnichesky Lane 12, Stavropol

355017, Russia^4

Stavropol Branch of the Krasnodar University, Ministry of Internal Affairsof Russia, 43 Kulakov prospect, Stavropol

355035, Russia^5

关键词: Confidence interval;    Demographic development;    Demographic models;    Modeling technique;    Modelling process;    Modelling techniques;    Multi variate analysis;    Priori information;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/315/2/022059/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/315/2/022059

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

The brief description of the demographic model and modeling technique elaborated and used by the authors for investigating the trends of demographic development in Russia are given. The demographic model and the modelling technique are based on auto regression and regression analysis of time series for demographic indicators, simulation modelling and confidence intervals for model values of demographic indicators with taking into account a priori information and constraints on the model parameters and modelling process. Based on confidence intervals three scenarios of Russia's demographic development were developed: Low, Medium and High. On the time period 2013-2033 being investigated the demographic model to be constructed allows for the scenario variants to calculate one-year age structures for men and women, one-year age fertility, mortality and net migration rates and all necessary for analysis integral demographic indicators. The results of the multivariate analysis of the demographic processes in Russia in 2013-2033-time period to be carried out are described.