The evaluation of drought indices: Standard Precipitation Index, Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and Palmer Drought Severity Index in Cilacap-Central Java

International Conference On Tropical Meteorology And Atmospheric Sciences

生态环境科学;原子能学

Balbo, F.^1 ; Wulandari, R.A.^2 ; Nugraha, M.R.R.^3 ; Dwiandani, A.^3 ; Syahputra, M.R.^1 ; Suwarman, R.^1

Atmospheric Science Research Group, Bandung Institute of Technology, Indonesia^1

Department of Magister of Environment Engineering, Bandung Institute of Technology, Indonesia^2

Department of Meteorology, Bandung Institute of Technology, Indonesia^3

关键词: Agricultural productivity;    CFSv2;    Drought conditions;    Palmer drought severity indices;    PDSI;    SPEI;    Standard precipitation indices;    Temperature differences;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/303/1/012012/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/303/1/012012

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

The Cilacap Regency-Central Java, is the largest agricultural area with a high level of drought vulnerability. This study aims to evaluate three indices in quantifying a drought condition in Cilacap Regency and its application in forecasting. The indices that were used in this study are Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). The comparison between SPI and SPEI shows that there is no significant difference in terms of determining the drought severity. SPEI should be used when there is a temperature difference more than 2°C in 30 years. PDSI may provide more frequency of drought event and a good result in indicating the effects of drought on agricultural productivity. We used Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) to predict drought severity by SPI. The result of model prediction shows that there is no significant improvement in accuracy before and after statistical bias correction. The prediction can be done on three months (lead3) before initial planting.