Effect of Different Solar Irradiance Parameters on Reliability Evaluation of the Grid

3rd International Symposium on Resource Exploration and Environmental Science

生态环境科学

Cheng, Simeng^1 ; Xie, Yimiao^2 ; Shu, Zhan^1 ; Wang, Yulin^3 ; Ning, Zhou^1 ; Yang, Yue^1

State Grid Jiangxi Power Co.Ltd Research Institute, China^1

State Grid Shangrao Power Supply Company, China^2

Information Engineering School of Nanchang University, China^3

关键词: Beta distributions;    Generation systems;    Partitioning methods;    Photovoltaic grids;    Probabilistic distribution;    Reliability assessments;    Reliability Evaluation;    System reliability;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/300/4/042115/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/300/4/042115

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Large-Scale volatility photovoltaic grid-connected which will have a profound impact on the reliability of the system. A new method based on maximum likelihood estimation is presented in this paper in which probabilistic distribution of solar irradiance is calculated on the premise of solar irradiance beta distribution, according to volatility and intermittent characteristics of photovoltaic, and simulated the actual solar irradiance which affecting power output of photovoltaic based on Monte Carlo method, then, Established a photovoltaic probability output model which can reflect the randomness output of photovoltaic; and use of the partitioning method, the reliability assessment of an interconnected generation system with photovoltaic connected with IEEE-RTS79 system is performed by Monte Carlo simulation; The results show that there have a contribution on reliability evaluation of the grid when connected on determined location and under a certain load level; also the example show the influence of different parameters of solar irradiation on system reliability indicators and the result show different parameters of beta distribution have a great impact on grid reliability indicators.