Forecast of China's Power Generation Demand Trend Based on Scenario Prediction Method

3rd International Symposium on Resource Exploration and Environmental Science

生态环境科学

Gao, Chunjiao^1

Fuzhou University of International Studies and Trade, Fuzhou, Fujian

350202, China^1

关键词: Controllable ranges;    Empirical analysis;    Generating capacity;    Prediction errors;    Prediction model;    Regression analysis methods;    Regression model;    Scenario predictions;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/300/4/042090/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/300/4/042090

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

This paper mainly studies the application of scenario prediction method in the forecasting of China's generating capacity, and conducts an empirical analysis with data of China's generating capacity from 1994 to 2017. Firstly, use the regression analysis method to fit sequence data. Taking the relationship between generating capacity and GDP into account, a China's prediction model of generating capacity can be established. Then, consider in two different scenarios and get the predicted value of GDP model in different scenarios. At last, apply the regression model to the predicted trend of China's generating capacity in 2018. Finally, a comparison with the real value of generating capacity in 2018 shows that the prediction error is within a controllable range, and it indicates that the scenario prediction method is of certain practical significance in predicting this macroeconomic phenomenon.